This paper estimates traditional and New Phillips curves for Hungary over the sample period 1995Q1 to 2004Q1. It presents the first structural Phillips curve estimations for a New EU Member State economy. We find that Hungarian inflation dynamics can be reasonably well described by a standard...

Over the last decades, the estimation of the slack in the economy has become an essential piece of analysis for policymakers, both on the monetary policy and the fiscal policy front. Output gap estimation techniques have flourished accordingly, although there is no consensus on a best-performing...

This paper presents the European Commission's Global Multi-country model (the GM model). The GM model is an estimated multi-country DSGE model that can be used for spillover analysis, forecasting and medium term projections. Its development is jointly performed by the Joint Research Centre and...

This economic brief provides a self-contained guide on the new Plausibility Tool, being a part of the constrained discretion approach to improving the Production Function methodology for calculating potential output and output gaps. It explains the macroeconomic model and its rationale, reports...

Potential output estimates during Ireland's pre-2007 housing boom showed narrowing output gaps and positive structural budget balances. These results helped to create a false sense of security among domestic policy makers. It took a deep economic and financial crisis to learn that Ireland had...