Sovereign spreads can be broken up into two components: the expected loss from default and the risk premium, with the latter reflecting how investors price the risk of unexpected losses. We show that the risk premium is often the larger part of the spread

We present a simple model of the price process of a capital asset that is subject to serially correlated demand shocks, and whose supply responds with a lag. In this setting the price of the asset can exhibit positive serial correlation over short intervals and negative serial correlation over...

We analyze the prices of owner-occupied housing in 97 metropolitan areas between 1980 and 2011. Our tests indicate that price changes exhibit positive serial correlation at the one year intervals, with subsequent reversals of price changes over longer intervals. Consistent with our simple model,...

We analyze the prices of owner-occupied housing in 97 metropolitan areas between 1980 and 2011. Our tests indicate that price changes exhibit positive serial correlation at the one year intervals, with subsequent reversals of price changes over longer intervals. Consistent with our simple model,...