In a simple New Keynesian model, we derive a closed form solution for the inflation-gap persistence parameter as a function of the policy weights in the central bank's Taylor rule. By estimating the time-varying weights that the FED attaches to inflation and the output gap, we show that the...

In a simple New Keynesian model, we derive a closed form solution for the inflation persistence parameter as a function of the policy weights in the central bank’s Taylor rule. By estimating the time-varying weights that the FED attaches to inflation and the output gap, we show that the...

In a simple New Keynesian model, we derive a closed form solution for the inflation-gap persistence parameter as a function of the policy weights in the central bank’s Taylor rule. By estimating the time-varying weights that the FED attaches to inflation and the output gap, we show that the...

In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges of inflation. We show in two large-scale experiments that responses vary when we modify the response scale. Asking an identical question with modified response scales induces different answers: Shifting,...

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show that the current high-inflation environment induces...

Using millions of individual gasoline prices collected at a daily frequency, we examine the speed at which market refined oil prices are transmitted to consumer liquid fuel prices. We find that on average gasoline prices are modified once a week and the distribution of price changes displays a...

Using a unique French firm-level dataset, we study how international trade affects the wage bargaining process at the firm level. Using instrumental variables techniques, we find that exports shocks have a positive effect on the probability that a firm-level wage agreement is signed, while...