Because uncertainty is high in bad times, investors find it harder to assess firm prospects and, hence, should value analyst output more. However, higher uncertainty makes analysts' tasks harder so it is unclear if analyst output is more valuable in bad times. We find that, in bad times, analyst...

We find that consumption risk is lower in states that implement counter-cyclical fiscal policies. Moreover, firms whose investor base are concentrated in counter-cyclical states have lower stock returns, along with firms that relocate their headquarters to a counter-cyclical state. Therefore,...

This paper applies the asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) using irregularly spaced transaction data. We model trade direction (buy versus sell orders) and the duration between trades...