Inspired by Aumann and Serrano (2008) and Foster and Hart (2009), we propose risk-neutral options' implied measures of riskiness and investigate their significance in predicting the cross section of expected returns per unit of risk. The empirical analyses indicate a negative and significant...

We derive generalized bounds on conditional expected excess returns. The bounds deliver consistent expected returns for individual and index-type assets, are conditionally tight, account for all risk-neutral moments of returns, and outperform runner-up models for out-of-sample predictions....

This paper proposes an approach to study the expected excess return of a long-term bond and focuses on a lower bound. This lower bound is a crucial number, as it represents the minimum expected excess return demanded by investors. The derived bound is model-independent and can be extracted from...

Current factor models do not identify risks that matter to investors. To address this issue, we provide a factor model implementation of the ICAPM, which captures market risk and intertemporal risk (i.e., changes in long-term expected returns and volatility). We build our intertemporal risk...

In a one-period economy, Martin (2017) and Chabi-Yo and Loudis (2020) derive bounds for the equity risk premium that use options of the same maturity as the horizon at which the premium is measured. In contrast, we provide an expression and an empirical methodology to measure the premium at a...

This paper proposes a test for common conditionally heteroskedastic (CH) features in asset returns. Following Engle and Kozicki (1993), the common CH features property is expressed in terms of testable overidentifying moment restrictions. However, as we show, these moment conditions have a...