We study whether investors can exploit serial dependence in stock returns to improve out-of-sample portfolio performance. We show that a vector-autoregressive (VAR) model captures stock return serial dependence in a statistically significant manner. Analytically, we demonstrate that, unlike...

A fundamental insight in finance is that there is a strong risk-return tradeoff. Moreira and Muir (2017) challenge this by showing that investors can increase Sharpe ratios by reducing exposure to risk factors when their volatility is high. However, Cederburg, O'Doherty, Wang, and Yan (2020)...