This paper suggests a new approach to evaluate realized covariance (RCOV) estimators via their predictive power on return density. By jointly modeling returns and RCOV measures under a Bayesian framework, the predictive density of returns and ex-post covariance measures are bridged. The forecast...

The prediction of future mortality improvements is of substantial importance for areas such as population projection, government welfare policies, pension planning and annuity pricing. The Lee-Carter model is one of the widely applied mortality models proposed to capture and predict the trend in...

The recent Sino-U.S. trade conflict has made the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) between China and the US on the global market gradually become a hot topic. This paper uses a spillover directional measure to investigate the cross-category spillovers among crude oil and gold markets...