Building on insights from the economics of superstars, I develop an efficient method for estimating the skill of mutual fund managers. “Outliers” are helpful for distinguishing skill from luck in this framework — informative rather than spurious. Forecasted performance is dramatically...

We apply a number of forecasting models to Australian Government Bond yields. All methods rely solely on the history of yields. Consistent with findings from US Treasury data, we show that the simplest forecasting models across all maturities and forecasting horizons are also generally the best:...