Structural DSGE models are used for analyzing both policy and the sources of business cycles. Conclusions based on full structural models are, however, potentially affected by misspecification. A competing method is to use partially identified SVARs based on narrative shocks. This paper asks...

We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR...

We investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the level of uncertainty. Using postwar US data and a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) model, we find that fiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times but is contractionary during...

We investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the level of uncertainty. Using postwar US data and a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) model, we find that fiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times but is contractionary during...

This paper estimates the interaction between monetary- and fiscal policy using a structural VAR model with time-varying parameters. For demand and supply shocks, the two policies are estimated to be complementary, while for monetary and fiscal policies shocks the two policies act as substitutes....

This paper analyses the effects of loan supply, as well as aggregate demand, aggregate supply and monetary policy shocks between 1998 and 2014 in Macedonia using a structural Vector Auto Regression with sign restrictions and Bayesian estimation. The main results indicate that loan supply shocks...