We estimate a model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19. An unexpected pandemic lowers current earnings due to costly mitigation and reduces growth rates. Damage depends on the expected arrival of a vaccine that reverts earnings to normal. Using this model, we infer from analysts'...

We estimate a model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19. A pandemic decreases earnings due to costly mitigation and lower growth rates. The arrival of a vaccine, modeled as a Poisson process, reverts earnings to normal. We fit our model to timely measures of expected damage given by...

A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock...

A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock...

This paper presents an industry equilibrium model where firms have a choice to engage in corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities. We model CSR as an investment to increase product differentiation that allows firms to benefit from higher profit margins. The model predicts that CSR...

This paper presents an industry equilibrium model where firms have a choice to engage in corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities. We model CSR as an investment to increase product differentiation that allows firms to benefit from higher profit margins. The model predicts that CSR...

The paper uses data on bids submitted by primary dealer banks at auctions of sovereign debt to quantify the price elasticity of demand. The price elasticity of demand correlates strongly with the volatility of returns of the same bonds traded in the secondary market but only weakly with their...