This paper finds that participants in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters have submitted forecasts that are consistent with a (mostly forward-looking) New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area. The estimation results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have...

This paper finds that participants in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters have submitted forecasts that are consistent with a (mostly forward-looking) New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area. The estimation results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have...

Before the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, discussions were already taking place on how to complete Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and increase its resilience, inter alia, by speeding up economic convergence. The impact of the current unprecedented crisis on the euro area...

We jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment, expected inflation, and potential output for the Euro area, the United States, Sweden, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Particular attention is paid to time-variation in (i) the data-generation process for...

We jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment, expected inflation, and potential output for the Euro area, the United States, Sweden, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Particular attention is paid to time-variation in (i) the data-generation process for...