This paper considers a new mixture of time homogeneous finite Markov chains where the mixing is on the rate of movement and develops the EM algorithm for the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the mixture. A continuous and discrete time versions of the mixture are defined and...

We consider estimation of a quantile from a discrete distribution. This gives rise tothree new ideas, the confidence set for such a quantile, the notion that the associatedconfidence level can be increased after the data are collected, and that it is legitimateto strive to obtain a singleton...

Deviations of market participants forecasts from full-information rational expectations (FIRE) are usually specified to arise from limited information or irrationality. Relying on a novel theoretical characterization, we present empirical evidence that these specifications are inconsistent with...