We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left …-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higher-order risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household … data from the United States. We find countercyclical variance and procyclical skewness of persistent shocks. All shock …

We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left …-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higherorder risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household … data from the United States. We find countercyclical variance and procyclical skewness of persistent shocks. All shock …

, or "uncertainty shocks", are an important model ingredient. First, they account for countercyclical movements in risk … changes in both risk-premia and expected future real rates, uncertainty shocks account for about 1/2 of the variance of long …

and 4 years is effective in explaining the differences in risk premia across alternative test assets, including recently …

-sized uncertainty shock generates a larger contraction in real activity when growth is low (as in recessions) than when growth is high …