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UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound

Carriero, Andrea; Mouabbi, Sarah; Vangelista, Elisabetta - 2015

This paper employs a Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) consistent shadow-rate model to decompose UK nominal yields into expectation and term premia components. Compared to a standard affine term structure model, it performs relatively better in a ZLB setting and effectively captures the countercyclical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011339919

Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates

Kaminska, Iryna; Mumtaz, Haroon; Šustek, Roman - 2020

the transmission mechanism and broadly consistent with macroeconomic theory. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012316011

Inferring Equity Durations Around FOMC Surprises : Estimates and Implications

Chen, Zhanhui - 2020

because expected future cash-flow growth varies with the discount rates. The traditional Macaulay duration captures the effect … from the discount-rate channel. I propose a novel duration measure, the effective equity duration, to capture the effects … is hump-shaped because expected future cash flow growth increases with the discount rates. The effective equity duration …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012851441

Do firms behave differently when nominal interest rates are below zero?

Abildgren, Kim; Küchler, Andreas - 2020

Yes they do! We examine the case of Denmark - the first country in the world to move its key monetary-policy rate below zero. Using rich microdata and an event-study framework, we find that firms exposed to negative deposit rates to a higher degree than other firms increase their fixed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012318170

The short-run effect of monetary policy shocks on credit risk : an analysis of the euro area

Kim, Chi Hyun; Other, Lars - 2019

We examine the credit channel of monetary policy from 2000 to 2015 in the Euro Area using daily monetary policy shock and credit risk measures in an autoregressive distributed lag model. We find that an expansionary monetary policy shock leads to a short-run increase in the credit risk of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011963607

Sovereign bond-backed securities : a VAR-for-VaR and marginal expected shortfall assessment

Sola Perea, Maite de; Dunne, Peter G.; Puhl, Martin; … - 2018

The risk reducing benefits of the sovereign bond-backed security (SBBS) proposal of Brunnermeier et al (2011, 2016, 2017) have been assessed in terms of the likely losses that different kinds of holders would suffer under simulated default scenarios. However, the effects of mark-to-market losses...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011848354

Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality

Brand, Claus; Goy, Gavin; Lemke, Wolfgang - 2021

We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705391

Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality

Brand, Claus; Goy, Gavin; Lemke, Wolfgang - 2020

Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012425011

Missing events in event studies : identifying the effects of partially-measured news surprises

Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin; Wright, … - 2018

Macroeconomic news announcements are elaborate and multi-dimensional. We consider a framework in which jumps in asset prices around macroeconomic news and monetary policy announcements reflect both the response to observed surprises in headline numbers and latent factors, reflecting other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900777

The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Forecasting the Yield Curve

Eo, Yunjong - 2020

We investigate how conventional and unconventional monetary policies affect the dynamics of the yield curve by assessing the performance of individual yield curve models and their mixtures. Out-of-sample forecasts for U.S. bond yields show that the arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel model and its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012849587