On average between 1981 and 2007, output per capita in Hong Kong grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent. But economic performance over the period was far from even. Between 1987 and 1997, output per capita averaged 9.7 percent above its long run growth path. In 1997, the feast ended and the...

This paper explains US macroeconomic outcomes with an empirical new-Keynesian model in which monetary policy minimizes the central bank's loss function. The presence of expectations in the model forms a well-known distinction between two modes of optimization, termed commitment and discretion....

This paper studies the role of unemployment insurance in a sticky-price model that features an efficiency-wage view of the labor market based on unobservable effort. The risk-sharing mechanism central to the model permits, but does not force, agents to be fully insured. Structural parameters are...

This paper checks whether the coefficient estimates of a famous DSGE model are robust to macroeconomic data revisions. The effects of revisions are captured by rerunning the estimation on a real-time data set compiled using the latest time series available each quarter from 1997 through 2015....