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sectors - industry, services, construction, and agriculture - across the four largest euro area economies - Germany, France …, Italy and Spain - and the euro area as a whole. By modelling prices together with real activity, employment and wages, we …, we also allow for spillovers to the other euro area countries in our sample. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411883
This paper investigates uncertainty around point estimates of the euro area NAIRU in a state space framework. The … approximations. The degree of uncertainty of the euro area NAIRU is estimated with a trivariate state space model. The widths of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014052531
Using a small Bayesian dynamic factor model of the euro area we estimate the deviations of output from its trend that … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981025
This paper investigates uncertainty around point estimates of the euro area NAIRU in a state space framework. The … approximations. The degree of uncertainty of the euro area NAIRU is estimated with a trivariate state space model. The widths of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014064728
We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859867
This paper evaluates the performance of two alternative policy rules, a forward-looking rule and a spontaneous adjustment rule, under alternative inflation targets, in terms of output losses in a macroeconomic model, using European Union data. The simulations suggest that forward-looking rules...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774248
-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output gap estimates for euro area data. For many periods the cyclical component of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010248220
that stress in the eurozone is mainly due to different trend growth rates and that for most of the Euro-zone countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317182
We analyse the implications of asymmetric monetary policy rules by estimating Markov-switching DSGE models for the euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210663
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125