This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...

We show that the FX impact of monetary policy has been growing significantly. We use a high-frequency event study of the joint response of fixed income instruments and exchange rates to monetary policy news from seven major central banks spanning 2004-2015. News affecting short maturity bonds...

This paper shows that the consumption-based capital asset pricing model (C-CAPM) with low-probability disaster risk rationalizes pricing errors. We find that implausible estimates of risk aversion and time preference are not puzzling if market participants expect a future catastrophic change in...

We evaluate the response of perceived tail risks in financial markets to the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Using information from out-of-money equity index options, we find that perceived risks decline significantly in response to both policy...

We evaluate the response of perceived tail risks in financial markets to the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Using information from out-of-money equity index options, we find that perceived risks decline significantly in response to both policy...

This paper presents an empirical evaluation of recently proposed asset pricing models which extend the standard preference specification by a reference level of consumption. We motivate an alternative model that accounts for the return on human capital as a determinant of the reference level....

This paper presents an empirical evaluation of recently proposed asset pricing models which extend the standard preference specification by a reference level of consumption. We motivate an alternative model that accounts for the return on human capital as a determinant of the reference level....