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A downward-sloping term structure of equity and upward-sloping term structures of interest rates arise endogenously in a general-equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and nonlinear habits in consumption. Countercyclical marginal costs exacerbate the procyclicality of dividends after a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013016903
A downward-sloping term structure of equity and upward-sloping term structures of interest rates arise endogenously in a general-equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and nonlinear habits in consumption. Countercyclical marginal costs exacerbate the procyclicality of dividends after a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019905
We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705391
Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012425011
Researchers who estimate affine term structure models often impose overidentifying restrictions (restrictions on parameters beyond those necessary for identification) for a variety of reasons. While some of those restrictions seem to have minor effects on the extracted factors and some measures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011961381
equity term structure cyclicality and the upward sloping bond term structure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011963382
This paper makes a step towards understanding the term-structure forecasts of bond risk premia. Two economically … factor) are enough to summarize virtually all of predictive power for excess bond returns contained in the factor of Cochrane … the financial crisis. This explains weaker predictability of excess bond returns in the subsamples that cover the most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857508
cyclical movements in Treasury bond premia. Downward nominal rigidities create state-dependence in output and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014505834