The uncertainty surrounding economic forecasts is generally related to multiple sources of risks, of domestic and foreign origin. This paper studies the predictive distribution of Italian GDP growth as a function of selected risk indicators, related to both financial and real economic...

This paper describes a procedure for assessing the effects of the budget on economic activity in the short term. Based on counterfactual simulations of an econometric model, the procedure takes into account more relationships between the budget and the economy than other, more synthetic...