More than thirty years ago Milton Friedman proposed a "plucking" model of business fluctuations in which output cannot exceed a ceiling level, but will, from time to time, be plucked downward by recession. The model implied that business fluctuations are asymmetric, that recessions have only a...

In this paper, we consider estimation of a time-varying parameter model for a forward-looking monetary policy rule, by employing ex-post data. A Heckman-type (1976) two-step procedure is employed in order to deal with endogeneity in the regressors. This allows us to econometrically take into...