The authors apply a Hidden Markov Model to identify regimes of shifting inflation and then employ an attribution technique based on the Mahalanobis distance to identify the economic variables that determine the trajectory of inflation. Their analysis enables policymakers to focus on the most...

Traditional equity factors such as the leveraged equity risk premium, the small-cap premium, and the value premium have had high historical returns on average, as has the buyout fund industry in aggregate. Previous research has argued that these factors explain the excess performance of private...