We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation … featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US … and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that …

inflation expectations increased leading to fears of their un-anchoring. Using the first principal component of commodity prices …. Using a Phillips Curve framework we find a structural change after the collapse of Lehman Brothers when inflation …