This paper suggests a new approach to evaluate realized covariance (RCOV) estimators via their predictive power on return density. By jointly modeling returns and RCOV measures under a Bayesian framework, the predictive density of returns and ex-post covariance measures are bridged. The forecast...

The recent Sino-U.S. trade conflict has made the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) between China and the US on the global market gradually become a hot topic. This paper uses a spillover directional measure to investigate the cross-category spillovers among crude oil and gold markets...