We develop a theoretical model to compare forecast uncertainty estimated from time-series models to those available from survey density forecasts. The sum of the average variance of individual densities and the disagreement is shown to approximate the predictive uncertainty from well-specified...

In this paper, we estimate the effect of psychiatric disorders on labor market outcomes using a structural equation model with a latent index for mental illness, an approach that acknowledges the continuous nature of psychiatric disability. We also address the potential endogeneity of mental...

While the yield spread has long been recognized as a good predictor of recessions, it seems to have been largely overlooked by professional forecasters. We examine this puzzle, established by Rudebusch and Williams (2009), in a data-rich environment including not just the yield spread but many...