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We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading-indicator variables. We employ an efficient probit estimator for partially missing data and assess relative model performance based on the receiver...
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; factor ; federal reserve bank ; forecast ; macroeconometrics ; monetary policy ; parameter estimation error ; proxy …
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adequately "proxy" for estimated factors. -- diffusion index ; factor ; forecast ; macroeconometrics ; parameter estimation error …
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parameterizations based on the echelon form are presented. Model specification, estimation, model checking and forecasting are discussed …
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