This paper combines a term structure model of credit default swaps (CDS) with weak-identification robust methods to jointly estimate the probability of default and the loss given default of the underlying firm. The model is not globally identified because it forgoes parametric time series...

This chapter deals with the estimation of risk neutral distributions for pricing index options resulting from the hypothesis of the risk neutral valuation principle. After justifying this hypothesis, we shall focus on parametric estimation methods for the risk neutral density functions...

In dynamic asset pricing models, when the model structure becomes complex and derivatives data are introduced in estimation, traditional Bayesian MCMC methods converge slowly, are difficult to design efficient proposals for parameters, and have large computational cost. We propose a two-stage...

We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for conducting inference on probabilistic surveys. We use this approach to study whether U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters density projections for output growth and inflation are consistent with the noisy rational expectations hypothesis. We...

This paper studies standard predictive regressions in economic systems governed by persistent vector autoregressive dynamics for the state variables. In particular, all - or a subset - of the variables may be fractionally integrated, which induces a spurious regression problem. We propose a new...

In this paper, we extend the results in Hansen (1982) regarding the asymptotic distribution of GMM sample moment conditions. In particular, we show that the part of the scaled sample moment conditions that gives rise to degeneracy in the asymptotic normal distribution is T-consistent and has a...

In this paper, we extend the results in Hansen (1982) regarding the asymptotic distribution of generalized method of moments (GMM) sample moment conditions. In particular, we show that the part of the scaled sample moment conditions that gives rise to degeneracy in the asymptotic normal...

Financial analysts typically estimate volatilities and correlations from monthly or higher frequency returns when determining the optimal composition of a portfolio. Although it is widely acknowledged that these measures are not necessarily stationary across samples, most analysts assume...

The Sharpe ratio is the most widely used metric for comparing performance across investment managers and strategies, and the information ratio is as commonly used to evaluate performance relative to a benchmark. Although it is widely recognized that non-linearities arising from the inclusion of...

We introduce closed-form transition density expansions for multivariate affine jump-diffusion processes. The expansions rely on a general approximation theory which we develop in weighted Hilbert spaces for random variables which possess all polynomial moments. We establish parametric conditions...