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We introduce conditional score residuals and provide a general framework for the diagnostic analysis of time series models. A key feature of conditional score residuals is that they account for the shape of the conditional distribution. These residuals offer reliable and powerful diagnostic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012666810
The paper evaluates the potential of band spectral estimation for extracting signals in economic time series. Two situations are considered. The first deals with trend extraction when the original data have been permanently altered by routine operations, such as prefiltering, temporal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014050668
examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis … were used to examine the degree or severity of volatility based on the first difference, standard deviation and coefficient … of deviation estimated volatility series for the nominal and real exchange rate of naira vis-a-vis the U.S dollar. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477452
In this paper we extend the Bayesian Proxy VAR to incorporate time variation in the parameters. A Gibbs sampling algorithm is provided to approximate the posterior distributions of the model's parameters. Using the proposed algorithm, we estimate the time-varying effects of taxation shocks in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011933414
, different channels were used to identify the source of inflation persistence and volatility. This was estimated using Bayesian … Nigeria can be modelled by assuming constant volatility as the evidence shows that stochastic volatility (SV) is not a source … an evidence of instability not volatility in the variance of the trend inflation. Secondly, we found that the inclusion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825374
/dollar exchange rate and the volatility in the yen/dollar markets. Using newly released data on Japanese foreign exchange intervention … effect on the same day, but at the cost of higher exchange rate volatility. Testing for the robustness of this finding we … unsuccessful and coincided with increased exchange rate volatility. Since 1999 official Japanese currency purchases seem to have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014067235
/dollar exchange rate and the volatility in the yen/dollar markets. Using newly released data on Japanese foreign exchange intervention … effect on the same day, but at the cost of higher exchange rate volatility. Testing for the robustness of this finding we … unsuccessful and coincided with increased exchange rate volatility. Since 1999 official Japanese currency purchases seem to have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014074708
generally, to observation-driven models, which include well-known models for conditional volatility. To overcome the problem of … Monte Carlo study and an empirical study concerning the measurement of conditional volatility from financial returns data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794421
volatility of a time series. We derive the main properties of the model and apply it to all agricultural commodities in the … volatility process and, according to homoscedasticity tests, outperforms the ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) models, some of the most … popular approaches used in the literature to analyze price volatility. Keywords: Agricultural prices, volatility, GARCH models. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456514
We provide a formulation of stochastic volatility (SV) based on Gaussian process regression (GPR). Forecasting … volatility out-of-sample, both simulation and empirical analyses show that our GPR-based stochastic volatility (GPSV) model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014186681