This study addresses some modeling questions related to the possibility of structural change in models with non-stationary variables. Focusing on cointegration issues, some methodological aspects ere discussed, attempting to integrate coherently the several steps of the modelling strategy. These...

This paper analyzes the relationship between the properties of the prediction errors of a predictor that assumes an autoregressive unit root and its optimal detection. According with this relationship, new autoregressive unit root tests are proposed based on multi-step prediction errors. It is...

In this paper we test for (Generalized) AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [(G)ARCH] in daily and weekly data on 22 exchange rates and 13 stock market indices using the standard Lagrange Multiplier [LM] test for GARCH and a new LM test that is resistant to additive outliers. The data...

This paper extends previous work in Escribano and Jorda (1997) and introduces new LM specification procedures to choose between Logistic and Exponential Smooth Transition Regression (STR) Models. These procedures are simpler, consistent and more powerful than those previously available in the...

Nowcasting methods have become a crucial tool for central banks and investors due to their timeliness and ability to make 'on the spot' predictions. However, despite their popularity, there has been little research into statistical methods for the comparison of different nowcasts across multiple...

We develop a new parameter stability test against the alternative of observation driven generalized autoregressive score dynamics. The new test generalizes the ARCH-LM test of Engle (1982) to settings beyond time-varying volatility and exploits any autocorrelation in the likelihood scores under...

This paper studies the robust estimation and inference of threshold models with integrated regres- sors. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the profiled least squares (LS) estimator under the diminishing threshold effect assumption that the size of the threshold effect converges to zero....

We develop a new parameter stability test against the alternative of observation driven generalized autoregressive score dynamics. The new test generalizes the ARCH-LM test of Engle (1982) to settings beyond time-varying volatility and exploits any autocorrelation in the likelihood scores under...

In mathematical finance diffusion models are widely used and a variety of different parametric models for the drift and diffusion coefficient coexist in the literature. Since derivative prices depend on the particular parametric model of the diffusion coefficient function of the underlying, a...