This paper describes a modelling methodology for multivariate stochastic processes. The concept of multiple causality is discussed and a procedure to detect multiple causality is suggested. The data of a major Canadian supermarket is analyzed and a multivariate autoregressive model for this...

With the rapid development of the Internet and information technology, consumers have increasingly begun to acquire information through search engines, thus creating profitable advertising opportunities and advancing the practice of paid search advertising. For paid search advertising, a key...

We propose the relaxation algorithm as a simple and powerful method for simulating the transition process in growth models. This method has a number of important advantages: (1) It can easily deal with a wide range of dynamic systems including multi-dimensional systems with stable eigenvalues...

In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast macroeconomic variables that combines two existing approaches to mixed-frequency data in DSGE models. The first existing approach estimates the DSGE model in a quarterly frequency and uses higher frequency auxiliary data only for forecasting...

This paper focuses on finding starting-values for maximum likelihood estimation of Vector STAR models. Based on a Monte Carlo exercise, different procedures are evaluated. Their performance is assessed w.r.t. model fit and computational effort. I employ i) grid search algorithms, and ii)...

We present a careful analysis of possible issues of the application of the self-excited Hawkes process to high-frequency financial data and carefully analyze a set of effects that lead to significant biases in the estimation of the "criticality index'' n that quantifies the degree of endogeneity...

The Sharpe ratio is the most widely used metric for comparing performance across investment managers and strategies, and the information ratio is as commonly used to evaluate performance relative to a benchmark. Although it is widely recognized that non-linearities arising from the inclusion of...

Financial analysts typically estimate volatilities and correlations from monthly or higher frequency returns when determining the optimal composition of a portfolio. Although it is widely acknowledged that these measures are not necessarily stationary across samples, most analysts assume...

This paper proposes linear higher order conditions on the term structure that allow to compute valuation bounds for any deterministic cash stream. Starting from bounds on the forward rate curve and its derivatives, which are nonlinear in the discount factors, we derive linear conditions that are...

Estimation and modelling problems as they arise in many fields often turn out to be intractable by standard numerical methods. One way to deal with such a situation consists in simplifying models and procedures. However, the solutions to these simplified problems might not be satisfying. A...