Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing mortality rate is a time-varying indicator curve. Our main...

Empirical work on contracts typically regresses contract choice on observed principal and agent characteristics. If (i) some of these characteristics are unobserved or partially observed, and (ii) there are incentives whereby particular types of agents end up contracting with particular types of...

Empirical work on contracts typically regresses contract choice on observed principal and agent characteristics. If (i) some of these characteristics are unobserved or partially observed, and (ii) there are incentives whereby particular types of agents end up contracting with particular types of...

Statistical methods that shrink parameters towards zero can produce lower predictive variance than does maximum likelihood. This paper discusses an approach to doing this for age-period-cohort models, and applies it to fitting opioid mortality rates with a generalization of the Lee-Carter model...

We introduce an additive stochastic mortality model which allows joint modelling and forecasting of underlying death causes. Parameter families for mortality trends can be chosen freely. As model settings become high dimensional, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation....

Rapid population aging in China has urged the need to understand health transitions of older Chinese to assist the development of social security programs and financial products aimed at funding long-term care. In this paper, we develop a new flexible approach to modeling health transitions in a...

Hours per capita measures based on the private sector as usually included in the set of observables for estimating macroeconomic models are affected by low-frequent demographic trends and sectoral shifts that cannot be explained by standard models. Further, model-based output gap estimates are...

Following the Mediterranean Region trend, the Portuguese peripheral NUTS III regions are simultaneously affected by a human desertification and population ageing. In order to analyse the requirements to revert this process, DEMOSPIN project - Economically Sustainable DEMOgraphy - ReverSing...

This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a general state-space modelling methodology, which allows...

We introduce an additive stochastic mortality model which allows joint modelling and forecasting of underlying death causes. Parameter families for mortality trends can be chosen freely. As model settings become high dimensional, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation....