We estimate the impulse response function (IRF) of GDP toa banking crisis, applying an extension of the local projectionsmethod developed in Jorda (2005). This method is shown to bemore robust to misspecification than calculating IRFs analytically. However, it suffers from a hitherto unnoticed...

This paper advances the application of Bayesian graphical structural vector autoregressive (BGSVAR) models to address the problem of impulse response estimation in VAR-based systems. The BGSVAR is designed as a robust empirical framework for impulse response estimation using information from the...

This paper puts forward kernel ridge regression as an approach for forecasting with many predictors that are related nonlinearly to the target variable. In kernel ridge regression, the observed predictor variables are mapped nonlinearly into a high-dimensional space, where estimation of the...

DSGE models have recently received considerable attention in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. They are usually estimated using Bayesian methods, which require the computation of the likelihood function under the assumption that the parameters of the model remain fixed throughout the...

In this paper, we compare two fundamentally different judgmental demand forecasting approaches used to estimate demand and their corresponding demand distributions. In the first approach, parameters are obtained from a linear regression and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on team...

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of cointegrated vector autoregressive models when confronted with extreme observations at the end of the sample period. It focuses on comparing two outlier correction methods, additive outliers and innovational outliers, within a forecasting framework...

We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with existing approaches. We conduct a systematic comparison of their predictive accuracy in settings with different cross-sectional (N) and time (T) dimensions and varying degrees of...

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967-2001. Our results suggest that the choice of...