We propose a new method to find spatially adaptive smoothing splines. This new method breaks down the interval [0, 1] into p disjoint sub-intervals. Then we define p functional components in [0, 1], which have two importantfeatures. First, the purpose of each of these p components is to estimate...

In spite of the widespread use of generalized additive models (GAMs), there is no well established methodology for simultaneous inference and variable selection for the components of GAM. There is no doubt that both, inference on the marginal component functions and their selection, are...

Probability forecasts of binary events are often gathered from multiple models and averaged to provide inputs regarding uncertainty in important decision-making problems. Averages of well calibrated probabilities are underconfident, and methods have been proposed to make them more extreme. To...