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The concepts of potential growth and the output gap are important components in assessing the business cycle and productive capacity of an economy. However, being unobservable, these measures must be estimated. The Fiscal Compact will result in these concepts being used to judge EU member states...
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This study examines whether and how important it is to adjust output gap frameworks during the COVID-19 pandemic and similar unprecedentedly large-scale episodes. Our proposed modelling framework comprises a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregresion with an identification setup based on a...
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) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause … financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent …, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment …
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other variables, based on economic theory. We present the main advantages and drawbacks of the different methods …
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