Sellers of variance swaps earn time-varying risk premia for their exposure to realized variance, the level of variance swap rates, and the slope of the variance swap curve. To measure risk premia, we estimate a dynamic term structure model that decomposes variance swap rates into expected...

Model selection, i.e., the choice of an asset pricing model to the exclusion of competing models, is an inherently misguided strategy when the true model is unavailable to the researcher. This paper illustrates the advantages of a model pooling approach in characterizing the cross section of...

Empirical analysis of financial data such as the daily, weekly or monthly prices of assets such as bonds, stocks, currencies and commodities have shown that asset prices approximately follow a martingale process, but the distribution of asset returns tend to be fat-tailed. This paper examines...

Discount rates affect stock prices directly via the discount-rate channel or indirectly via the cash-flow channel because expected future cash-flow growth varies with the discount rates. The traditional Macaulay duration captures the effect from the discount-rate channel. I propose a novel...

This paper proposes a new approach to control the effects of time-varying parameters on the estimates of abnormal returns. Event studies usually assume that the parameters of the market model are stable. Using a sample of firm takeovers, however, I find that this assumption is indeed rejected....

This paper provides insight view of an investor mind dueling on proving the fact that a series of event in a company could cause a dramatic move on to practitioners who wish to forecast market returns based on event occurrences.Using 12 years (2006 to 2018) historical data of Foxconn Company...