We propose procedures for estimating the time-dependent transition matrices for the general class of finite nonhomogeneous continuous-time semi-Markov processes. We prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the system of Volterra integral equations defining the transition matrices,...

This paper develops a semiparametric, ordered-response model of credit rating in which ratings are equilibrium outcomes of a stylized cheap-talk game. The proposed model allows the choice probability to be an unknown function of multiple indices permitting flexible interaction, non-monotonicity,...

Financial contagion and systemic risk measures are commonly derived from conditional quantiles by using imposed model assumptions such as a linear parametrization. In this paper, we provide model free measures for contagion and systemic risk which are independent of the specifcation of...