I estimate a forward-looking, dynamic, discrete-choice monetary policy reaction function for the US economy, that accounts for the fact that there are substantial restrictions in the period-to-period changes of the Fed's policy instrument. I find a substantial contrast between the periods before...

This paper extends recent research on the behaviour of the t-statistic in a long-horizon regression (LHR). We assume that the explanatory and dependent variables are generated according to the following models: a linear trend stationary process, a broken trend stationary process, a unit root...

We adopt an unobserved components time series model to extract financial cycles for the United States and the five largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have medium-term cycles which share a few common statistical...

This paper assesses the performance of a simple monetary policy rule - McCallum's rule. This rule targets nominal income using the monetary base as its instrument whilst making an allowance for any on-going changes in money velocity. The paper conducts a range of historical counterfactual...

This paper provides a general procedure to estimate structural vector autoregressions. The algorithm can be used in constant or time-varying coefficient models, and in the latter case, the law of motion of the coefficients can be linear or non-linear. It can deal in a unified way with...

The reaction coefficients in the forecast-based monetary policy reaction function are only weakly identified when the smoothing coefficient for the nominal interest rate is close to unity. This situation also causes the nominal interest rate to be highly persistent. Inference based on the...

This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require...