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This paper examines exchange-rate volatility with GARCH models using monthly exchange-rate return series from 1985:1 to … compare estimates of variants of GARCH models with break in respect of the US dollar rates with exogenously determined break … estimation of volatility models with breaks as against those of GARCH models without volatility breaks and that the introduction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476095
heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models capture extreme events in stock market returns. We estimate Hill's tail indexes for individual S&P 500 … stock market returns ranging from 1995-2014 and compare these to the tail indexes produced by simulating GARCH models. Our … results suggest that actual and simulated values differ greatly for GARCH models with normal conditional distributions, which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010529886
Estimation of GARCH models can be simplified by augmenting quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation with variance … volatility equation and corresponding value-at-risk predictions. We find that most GARCH coefficients and associated predictions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410634
We apply the GARCH-MIDAS framework to forecast the daily, weekly, and monthly volatility of five highly capitalized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011906495
(GARCH), asymmetric power ARCH (APARCH), exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic (EGARCH …-of-sample volatility forecasting, AR(2)–GARCH(1, 1) is considered the best. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011747702
for conditional heteroskedasticity; a favored model is Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC), derived from the ARCH/GARCH …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011518597
for conditional heteroskedasticity; a favored model is Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC), derived from the ARCH/GARCH …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011640555
-correction method can improve the n-GARCH and n-EGARCH VaR forecasts so much that the acquired VaR predictions are different from the … distribution instead of GARCH improves the performance of the bias-correction method in forecasting the VaR for almost all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011632622
Forecasting-volatility models typically rely on either daily or high frequency (HF) data and the choice between these two categories is not obvious. In particular, the latter allows to treat volatility as observable but they suffer of many limitations. HF data feature microstructure problem,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011730304
Forecasting volatility models typically rely on either daily or high frequency (HF) data and the choice between these two categories is not obvious. In particular, the latter allows to treat volatility as observable but they suffer from many limitations. HF data feature microstructure problem,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011674479