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We propose a novel dynamic approach to forecast the weights of the global minimum variance portfolio (GMVP). The GMVP weights are the population coefficients of a linear regression of a benchmark return on a vector of return differences. This representation enables us to derive a consistent loss...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012243462
This study explores the predictive power of new estimators of the equity variance risk premium and conditional variance for future excess stock market returns, economic activity, and financial instability, both during and after the last global financial crisis. These estimators are obtained from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925879
forecasting technique with respect to various volatility estimators. The methodology of volatility estimation included Close … variations in returns. Forecasting volatility has been a stimulating problem in the financial systems. This study examined the …, Garman-Klass, Parkinson, Roger-Satchell, and Yang-Zhang methods and forecasting was done through the ARIMA technique. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870348
forecasting technique with respect to various volatility estimators. The methodology of volatility estimation includes Close … variations in returns. Forecasting volatility had been a stimulating problem in the financial systems. The study examined the …, Garman-Klass, Parkinson, Roger-Satchell and Yang-Zhang methods and forecasting is done through ARIMA technique. The study …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860158
We develop a penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings. The penalization in the first pass enforces sparsity for the time-variation drivers while also maintaining compatibility with the no arbitrage restrictions by regularizing appropriate groups of coefficients. The second...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487589
This paper introduces an extended multivariate EGARCH model that overcomes the zero-return problem and allows for negative news and volatility spillover effects, making it an attractive tool for multivariate volatility modeling. Despite limitations, such as noninvertibility and unclear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015151272
inputs within the investment process. It is this estimation step which is ultimately key in transforming raw financial data … into useful investment information. Therefore, having a flexible and robust estimation process is of crucial importance to … different forms of time-conditioning and market state-conditioning into any estimation procedure. This framework allows one to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893987
conditional quantile estimation. Specifically, we model the conditional standard deviation as a realized GARCH model and employ … proposed dynamic quantile models. We devise a two-step estimation procedure to estimate the conditional quantile parameters …. The first step applies a quasi-maximum likelihood estimation procedure, with the realized volatility as a proxy for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216324
This paper introduces a unified multivariate overnight GARCH-Ito model for volatility matrix estimation and prediction … weighted least squares estimation procedure for estimating model parameters with open-to-close high-frequency and close … the proposed estimation and prediction methods.The empirical analysis is carried out to compare the performance of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013290653
This paper introduces a unified parametric modeling approach for time-varying market betas that can accommodate continuous-time diffusion and discrete-time series models based on a continuous-time series regression model to better capture the dynamic evolution of market betas.We call this the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013290654