This paper investigates the effect of characteristic-based time-varying factor beta on the diffusion-index type forecast. Specifically, the factor beta includes two distinct components: the "instrumental beta'' is a function of some observed stable variables, while the "idiosyncratic beta''...

Numerous tests designed to detect realized jumps over a fixed time span have been proposed and extensively studied in the financial econometrics literature. These tests differ from “long time span tests” that detect jumps by examining the magnitude of the jump intensity parameter in the data...