Showing 1 - 10 of 5,437
the financial crisis, suggesting that an extreme volatility period requires models that can adapt quickly to turmoil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925879
respective forecast accuracy and test whether the forecasted information are relevant to equity or debt markets. The results, in … terms of forecast accuracy in firm-level tests. This study finds that the opposing performance outcome appears to be driven …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355565
This paper introduces a multivariate kernel based forecasting tool for the prediction of variance-covariance matrices of stock returns. The method introduced allows for the incorporation of macroeconomic variables into the forecasting process of the matrix without resorting to a decomposition of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011823257
efficient to forecast all types of time series data and most specially, the out-of-sample forecasting of the time series that … exhibits clustering volatility. This gap leads to introduce a competing model to catch up with the clustering volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863857
Volatility has been used as an indirect means for predicting risk accompanied with an asset. Volatility explains the … variations in returns. Forecasting volatility has been a stimulating problem in the financial systems. This study examined the … different volatility estimators and determined the most efficient volatility estimator. The study described the accuracy of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870348
Volatility had been used as an indirect means for predicting risk accompanied with the asset. Volatility explains the … variations in returns. Forecasting volatility had been a stimulating problem in the financial systems. The study examined the … different volatility estimators and determined the efficient volatility estimator. The study described the accuracy of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860158
We propose a flexible GARCH-type model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies … computationally attractive and feasible for large dimensions. We demonstrate its strong predictive potential for financial volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014051065
volatility dynamics modeled as a HAR is augmented by a term involving quarticity in order to correct measurement errors in … accounts for a faster mean reversion when volatility is high. We argue that heteroskedasticity (volatility of volatility) and a … that when the DGP is a (MS-)AMEM, such terms turn out spuriously significant in a HAR. Forecast performance of the (MS …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947755
high-frequency data better and produce more accurate forecasts than competing realized volatility and option …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855793
This chapter summarizes recent literature on asymptotic inference about forecasts. Both analytical and simulation based methods are discussed. The emphasis is on techniques applicable when the number of competing models is small. Techniques applicable when a large number of models is compared to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023703