Showing 1 - 10 of 13,338
Business-cycle adjustment is mostly determined via filter methods, especially the HP filter, or, e.g. within the EU fiscal rules, by a production function approach. James Hamilton put big doubt on the quality of the HP filter estimates, and proposed an alternative regression approach to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014307295
We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple autoregression of real GDP. While this approach yields a cyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233667
Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models … unobserved component models and offers frequentist as well as Bayesian estimation techniques. Additional functionalities include … preparation, model specification, and estimation processes using RGAP. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013256541
methods applied for their estimation are as accurate as possible. A bivariate Kalman Filter (KF) model using capacity … the first-best approach for future TFP cycle estimation. This paper compares the existing method to an approach which uses …, and that this new approach leads to a reduction in the total estimation error variance and revisions required to TFP cycle …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866790
We introduce a simple nonparametric approach to compute impulse response functions. We first search for clusters of recurrent patterns of observations resembling two sets of given initial conditions, one of which contains the impact effect of the structural shock of interest. Then, to trace out...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216683
Short-term analysis is generally performed with seasonally adjusted data from which further estimation of the business …, because seasonal adjustment and trend-cycle estimation do not share the same methodological framework, a fact which could … Nelson decompositions. We show that estimation of the various components of a given time series is feasible once the location …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137997
model specifications for the parameters are therefore not required. Parameter estimation is carried out in the frequency …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011350381
This paper investigates the nonlinearity in the effects of news shocks about technological innovations. In a maximally flexible logistic smooth transition vector autoregressive model, state-dependent effects of news shocks are identified based on medium-run restrictions. We propose a novel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011967392
need to use nonlinear models to describe business cycle dynamic behaviour. Their approach is model (estimation)-free, based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011596878
develop a robust estimation approach for these slow-moving trend processes, which is guided by a judicious choice of priors … structure of the estimation procedure. The general version of the proposed Bayesian estimator with a slab-and-spike prior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013548955