In this chapter we show that all the known estimators of the coefficients of econometric models are inconsistent if their coefficients and error terms are not unique. In their stead, we present models having unique coefficients and error terms, with specific applicability to the analyses of...

As every econometrician knows, in a regression with one regressor, the dependent and explanatory variables may be spuriously correlated if they may have been affected by some third variable, a common cause. In a highly regarded article, Granger and Newbold (1974) were not concerned with this...

It is often thought that the error term in a regression represents the net effect of omitted variables. This poses a problem whenever the purpose of a model is to explain an economic phenomenon, because the estimated coefficients as well as the error will be wrong in the sense that they are not...

Typically, the explanatory variables included in a regression model, in conjunction with the omitted relevant regressors implied by the usual error term, have both direct and indirect effects on the dependent variable. Attempts to obtain their separate estimates have been plagued with...

In this paper we introduce a class of tentatively plausible, fixed-coefficient models of money demand and evaluate their forecast performance. When these models are re-estimated allowing all coefficients to vary over time, the forecasting performance improves dramatically. Aside from offering...

Among the many troublesome econometric relationships, the demand for money has proved especially recalcitrant, as evidenced by a long history of tinkering with basic specifications, always in response to some recent perceived forecast failure. The shortcomings of this approach and an alternative...

This paper explores Knightian model uncertainty about dynamic misspecification as a possible explanation of the considerable difference between estimated interest rate rules and optimal feedback descriptions of monetary policy. In the literature on robust control, Knightian uncertainty about a...

This paper (i) derives a number of properties of a newly specified multi-input-single-output (MISO) production function with a derived error term, and (ii) using iteratively rescaled generalized least squares, presents estimates of the cross-sectionally varying coefficients of a...