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specification needs a better theoretical grounding. Evidence of nonlinearities has been found by different estimation techniques …
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regime driven by the exchange rate and a third one with inflation targeting. The result is a CVAR with constant long … framework, inflation dynamics in Mexico since the country abandoned the gold standard. The model encompasses known results … parsimonious, it does not require inflation lags nor dummy variables. It also displays a very good pseudo out-of-sample forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011759587
Vector autoregressions with Markov-switching parameters (MS-VARs) fit the data better than do their constant-parameter predecessors. However, Bayesian inference for MS-VARs with existing algorithms remains challenging. For our first contribution, we show that Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499604
Vector autoregressions with Markov-switching parameters (MS-VARs) fit the data better than do their constant-parameter predecessors. However, Bayesian inference for MS-VARs with existing algorithms remains challenging. For our first contribution, we show that Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210359
Vector autoregressions with Markov-switching parameters (MS-VARs) offer dramatically better data fit than their constant-parameter predecessors. However, computational complications, as well as negative results about the importance of switching in parameters other than shock variances, have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031756
This paper uses an econometric model and Bayesian estimation to reverse engineer the path of inflation expectations … common measures of expected inflation available from surveys or computed from financial data. In particular, they exhibit the … strongest correlation with the inflation forecasts of the respondents in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011822348
In this paper, we test cointegration between GDP and Public consumption of the Republic of North Macedonia, for … quarterly data of twenty years' time series (2000Q1-2019Q4). We present results of two methods for cointegration test: first …, residual regression test table and second, Engle & Granger cointegration test and Philips Ouliaris test. Both methods provides …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489691