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Vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) processes are suitable models for producing linear forecasts of sets of time series variables. They provide parsimonious representations of linear data generation processes. The setup for these processes in the presence of stationary and cointegrated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023700
common stochastic trends and common stochastic cycles. When modeling the dynamics of multiple time series for a panel of … investigate the relationships between separation in cointegration and separation in serial correlation common features. Loosely …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409009
We study semi-parametric estimation and inference in cointegrated panels with endogenous feedback, allowing for general time-series and cross-section dependence and heterogeneity.Central to this literature are the fully-modified OLS of Phillips and Hansen (1990) that use a spectral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970628
cointegration model, of pairs of stock prices. We show the effect that using an encompassing prior under an orthogonal normalization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259626
. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for predicting stable stock price ratios, defined in a cointegration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505854
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011818289
cointegrating relationship to a spurious regression. The cointegration monitoring procedure is based on residuals from modified …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484411
The online Supplement presents the proof the auxiliary Lemmas 1-6, the entire set of tables with results from the Monte Carlo and the empirical studies, and further discussion on selected topics.Full paper is available at: 'https://ssrn.com/abstract=2707176' https://ssrn.com/abstract=2707176
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968328
We address the issue of modelling and forecasting macroeconomic variables using rich datasets by adopting the class of Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models. We overcome the estimation issue that arises with this class of models by implementing an iterative ordinary least squares...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970411
We present a construction of a family of Continuous time ARMA processes based on p iterations of the linear operator that maps a Lévy process onto an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The construction resembles the procedure to build an AR(p) from an AR(1). We show that this family is in fact a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919017