Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...

This chapter puts forward a manual for how to setup and solve a continuous time model that allows to analyze endogenous (1) level and risk dynamics. The latter includes (2) tail risk and crisis probability as well as (3) the Volatility Paradox. Concepts such as (4) illiquidity and liquidity...

The analysis of monetary developments have always been a cornerstone of the ECB’s monetaryanalysis and, thus, of its overall monetary policy strategy. In this respect, money demandmodels provide a framework for explaining monetary developments and assessing price stabilityover the medium term....

In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed - in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier)....

This study investigates the evolution of central bank profits as fiscal revenue (or: seigniorage) before and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008-9, focusing on a select group of central banks - namely the Bank of England, the United States Federal Reserve System, the Bank of...

This paper shows that remunerating required reserves can increase the flexibility of monetary policy. The remuneration at the current repo rate implies constant net marginal interest costs of holding required reserves. This allows the central bank also to change the rate also within a reserve...

This paper examines the relation between money and housing variables in the euro area and in the US. Our empirical model is based on a standard money demand relation which is augmented by housing market variables. In doing so, co-integrated money demand relationships can be established for both...

We revisit the usefulness of long-run money demand equations for the European Central Bank. We first conduct a model evaluation exercise by means of a recent time-varying cointegration test. A stable relation for euro area M3 is not rejected by data only when accounting for both a speculative...

The excess liquidity in the euro area is a product of a long period of quantitative easing. It changed the operational framework of the European Central Bank (ECB)’s monetary policy from the scarce reserves system (SRS) to the abundant reserves system (ARS). To eliminate excess liquidity and...