Showing 1 - 10 of 580
limited attention from the academic literature analysing fiscal forecasting in Europe. Some recent literature suggests the … forecasting and monitoring annual outcomes, while making use of infra-annual fiscal information, available within the current year …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778829
. Indicators arecompared by means of an in-sample and an out-of-sample forecasting experiment.Predictive accuracy is compared by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312099
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error correction model with quarterly data for the Euro Area...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477146
their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012063951
their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034314
This paper uses an estimated open economy DSGE model to examine if constant interest forecasts one and two years ahead can be regarded as modest policy interventions during the period 1993Q4-2002Q4. An intervention is here defined to be modest if it does not trigger the agents to revise their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583556
relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that …, when monetary and credit aggregates are loaded directly in the forecasting equation, the additional gains over the … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637074
Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions of data is an important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy. This paper evaluates the quality of major real macroeconomic Euro area variables, published by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425751
- and hard-threshold algorithms improves the forecasting performance, especially during periods of economic crisis. While a … effect on forecasting performance, all the more, if the set of indicators becomes unbalanced. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532088
an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, the paper shows that the proposed approach performs well as compared to other well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011806537