The studies summarised in this paper focus on the economic implications of euro area firms’ participation in global value chains (GVCs). They show how, and to what extent, a large set of economic variables and inter-linkages have been affected by international production sharing. The core...

This paper focuses on the developments of energy prices since mid-2021 and assesses their impact on euro-area headline inflation, also considering the indirect transmission through the core and food components. We find that, while the contribution of energy inflation to core and food inflation...

This paper assesses the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area, a key issue from a monetary policy perspective, using a range of measures of inflation expectations and methods. The overall reading of the evidence is that long-term inflation expectations in the euro area...

The studies summarised in this paper focus on the economic implications of euro area firms' participation in global value chains (GVCs). They show how, and to what extent, a large set of economic variables and interlinkages have been affected by international production sharing. The core...

Macroeconomic conditions are among the key determinants of the inflation outlook. This paper studies how business cycles affect the conditional distribution of euro-area inflation forecasts. Using a quantile regression approach, I estimate the conditional distribution of inflation to assess the...

This paper illustrates the tools used at Banca d’Italia (BI) to monitor the evolution of inflation expectations. The paper also surveys the analyses conducted at BI to assess how inflation expectations affect agents’ choices and the economy. The first part discusses the measures of inflation...