In this paper we examine the nature of currency crises. We ascertain whether the currency crises of the European Monetary System (EMS) were based either on fundamentals, or on self-fulfilling market expectations driven by extrinsic uncertainty. In particular, we extend previous work of Jeanne...

The Markov regime-switching modelling framework, with time-varying transition probabilities, is utilized to study the credibility of monetary policy in five member countries of the European Monetary System during the period 1979-98 (Austria, Belgium, France, Italy and the Netherlands). The...