The paper presents a method of computing the risk neutral probability distribution of future exchange rates from the prices of currency options. The method is applied to estimate the risk neutral ex ante probability of a realignment of the pound sterling against the mark in 1992. The computation...

Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System diverging current account positions in Europe have prevailed. While the Southern and Western European countries have tended to run current account deficits, the current accounts of the Central and Northern European countries, in particular Germany,...

Das Papier untersucht die durch eine Europäische Währungsunion zu erwartenden Änderungen der Geldschöpfungsgewinne der Mitgliedsländer. Dazu werden die zwischen 1980 und 1995 erzielten einzelstaatlichen Geldschöpfungsgewinne nach dem monetären und dem Opportunitätskostenkonzept...

This paper looks at the monetary policy decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and asks whether those decisions have been influenced solely by national concerns, or whether regional factors have played a role. All of the Federal Reserve's policymakers have some regional identity, i.e., either...