This paper reviews the central features of France’s capital controls in the 70's and 80's and strives to assess their ability, in the context of various exchange rate mechanisms, to regulate capital flows and to stabilize the exchange rate while allowing France to preserve a measure of...

This paper addresses the question of whether the European Monetary System can be copied outside Europe. Our answer is negative. The presence of the EC and the dependence of EC institutions on exchange rate stability lend credibility to EMS exchange rate targets in a way that would not be...

The paper investigates four challenges to exchange rate stability in the coming years and explores their implications for macroeconomic and exchange rate policy. The first section explores the importance of seigniorage in financing the government budget in Southern European countries. The second...

In credible target zone regimes, exchange rates should, according to Krugman's 1991 theory, spend a disproportionate amount of time near the edges of the fluctuation band. The major application of this theory has been to the European Monetary System (EMS), with several authors reporting that...

The paper presents an overview of several studies about the credibility of the European Monetary System (EMS). These studies compare different credibility indicators in terms of their ability to detect exchange rate crises in a target zone. Marginal credibility seems to be the best measure for...

We provide some new evidence on the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System. To that end, we use of several credibility indicators, analysing the complete EMS history. We also compare the prediction qualities of the different indicators, and apply them to the...

This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an augmented target-zone model, explicitly incorporating political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies. The...

This paper attempts to provide some answers to a number of related questions. Has the European Monetary System reduced (real or nominal, bilateral or effective) exchange rate volatility? If so, has this been at the expense of increased interest rate volatility? How important have capital...

In this paper simulation methods are employed on a two-country, rational expectations continuous-time model to explore the consequences of asymmetrical wage-price processes. As an additional feature the effects are explored of reductions in the degree of financial integration between the two...

This paper reviews the arguments for and against monetary unification in Europe, taking into account the recent shift in emphasis in discussions of exchange rate regimes. It discusses the merits of irrevocably fixed versus flexible exchange rates in the light of the literature on international...